(Except When It Isn’t)
I heard a phrase recently on a podcast that stopped me in my tracks. It wasn’t even a main point – just a throwaway comment – but it lodged itself in my brain:
“The best predictor of future success is past performance.”
It hit home for me because I’m living it right now. In one of my ventures, we’re trying to convince a big organisation to adopt our product. We’ve got years of experience working with them – through different projects, across different teams, and always delivering value through small, agile teams. At one point, they even acquired one of our companies. That’s how well things went.
But here’s the rub: the people we’re dealing with now have no idea about any of that. It’s like corporate amnesia. No history. No context. Just a clean slate – and not in a good way. We’re having to re-prove everything from scratch, despite a strong and successful track record.
Which made me realise: your past only predicts your future if people know about it.
Why the Past Matters
There’s truth in the idea. If you consistently show up, deliver, and grow over time, that’s a pretty strong signal that you’ll keep doing so. Whether you’re hiring someone, choosing a partner, or investing in a business, the most useful data point is what they’ve already done – not just what they say they’ll do.
But it’s not enough to simply have a history of doing good work. If no one knows, or if you can’t articulate the “why” behind the success, it’s easy to be overlooked.
Reflection is key
Document, Don’t Assume
One of the simplest ways to protect yourself from being forgotten is to document your wins. Not in a boastful, LinkedIn-humblebrag kind of way – but in a practical, business like manner.
- Keep short writeups of successful projects.
- Save feedback from happy clients or colleagues.
- Capture lessons learned from both wins and losses.
This isn’t just for your own reflection – it’s your portable credibility. If leadership changes, or you step into a new role or partnership, you’ve got proof of what you bring to the table.
Reflection Is a Superpower (But Hard)
Let’s be honest – most of us don’t spend enough time reflecting. I know I don’t. Even when I want to do it regularly, the day-to-day chaos gets in the way. Reflection drops down the to-do list in favour of putting out the latest fire.
But without it, we risk repeating mistakes – or worse, misattributing success. You can’t improve what you don’t understand. So making time to ask the right questions is crucial:
- What actually worked last time?
- Was it me, or was it the team, the timing, the conditions?
- Am I overestimating my own role?
- What patterns are emerging, and which ones should I break?
Breaking the Pattern
Of course, past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. People change. Circumstances change. Sometimes, the very thing that made you successful before might hold you back now.
Equally, people can break from negative patterns. Maybe it’s a mindset shift. A change of environment. A new mentor. A wake-up call. We’ve all seen people (or businesses) turn things around completely – not because their past predicted it, but because they chose to do things differently.
But that kind of shift usually isn’t magic – it’s intentional. It’s a result of reflection, courage, and consistent action.
Final Thought: Make Luck Work for You
I’m a big believer that you can make your own luck. I love that quote – often attributed to a golfer like Gary Player or Arnold Palmer:
“The more I practice, the luckier I get.”
That applies to business, too. If you consistently do good work, keep learning, reflect on what’s working, and partner with the right people – you’re stacking the odds in your favour.
But don’t leave your story untold. Your past can predict your future – but only if people know how to read it.
PS: A Weekly Reflection Challenge
If you’re anything like me, you might want to reflect more but find it hard to prioritise. I’m committing to a short weekly reflection session – with a few prompts to get me started. Nothing long. Just enough to pause and ask:
- What went well this week?
- What didn’t?
- What did I learn?
- What do I want to repeat or avoid?
If you’re up for it too, I’ll keep it going and maybe even share what comes out of it. Let’s see what our pasts can teach us – before they slip away.